R, the Reproduction Number, and Exponential Fear
R, the Reproduction Number, and Exponential Fear The Chloroquine Wars Part LXIII Mathew Crawford “ To be trusted is a greater compliment than being loved .” -George McDonald From the outset of the pandemic, metrics that represent (sort of) the first derivative of infection waves/curves, have been promoted (by media, politicians, and acolytes of “The Science” more than from real scientists or good faith health experts) seemingly in the best ways to induce anxiety and fear. You may have seen R, R_0 (“R naught”), R_t (“R at time t”), or even R_Z (“localized R”) along with the extra-sciency-sounding enunciations of the subscripts being used by well-practiced public speakers carrying the message, THIS IS ALL SO BAD THAT WE NEED TO TAKE AWAY YOUR JOBS, YOUR RIGHTS, AND YOUR DIGNITY TO PROTECT THE CHILDREN! That bad ?! Yeah, so bad that we have to submit to massive experimental interventions too quickly to think about the associated risks ( here and here ), alternatives...