Scientists: Cosmic Ray-Cloud Connection Explains Million-Year Climate Changes Far Better Than CO2


Per a new study, million-year variations in cosmic rays (CR) modulating cloud cover, which, in turn, drives variations in incident solar radiation on short- and long-term timescales, is the dominant cause of million-year climate variations, explaining all 7 Ice Age epochs over the Phanerozoic.


In contrast, declining CO2 and rising solar luminosity over the last billion years cannot explain past climate variations, as they ā€œcancel each other out.ā€

CO2ā€™s effects on climate are, using paleoclimate estimations of solar luminosity, assessed to be nearly just half of what the climate models say they are (2.1 W/mĀ² for CO2 doubling [~0.7Ā°C] rather than 3.7 W/mĀ² [1.2Ā°C] per doubling).

Assessing only millions-of-years timescales, the authors (Shaviv et al., 2023) suggest:

ā€œThe CR/climate relationship is the only one capable of explaining the magnitude of the observed solar-climate interactions.ā€

ā€œThe apparent effect that the CRs have on cloud cover automatically explains the size of all the observed solar-related climate variations.ā€

ā€œThe seven ice-age epochsā€¦over the past billion years have taken place when the CR flux was higher, as the theory predicts.ā€

ā€œDecreases in CO2 concentration and the increase in solar luminosity mostly cancel each other out.ā€


Two of the 3 authors of this study documented the the large effect on climate due to ā€œcloud radiative forcingā€ induced by a cosmic ray-cloud link a few years ago (Svensmark et al., 2021). They found that ā€œlow liquid clouds are mainly responsible for the change in net radiative forcingā€ (i.e., 2 W/mĀ²) over short-term periods as well.


The ancient climate link to galactic cosmic ray/cloud-induced global cooling and consequent mass extinction episodes has been suggested by other scientists (Isozaki, 2019) as well.

ā€œGalactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar/terrestrial responses in magnetism (Category 4) could have had a profound impact on the Earthā€™s climate, in particular on extensive cloud coverage (irradiance shutdown).ā€

ā€œAs an ultimate cause (Category 4) for major extinction, the episodic increase in GCR-dust flux from the source (dark clouds derived from starburst) against the geomagnetic shield likely determined the major climate changes, particularly global cooling in the past.ā€

Image Source: Isozaki, 2019


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